Section VI · External intelligence
Filed today

Serenity.

@aleabitoreddit·supply-chain chokepoint analyst·127K followers·+501% YTD at peak
25 tweets indexed · live feed via xcancel.com · scrape every 2h Mon-FriFri, May 29, 2026
Most materialFri, May 29, 2026
To be fair Trump did tell everyone to buy $DELL, multiple times this year

He did go out and buy $1-$5M worth of Dell stock himself after all… But should have seen this coming with Dell blowout earnings.

Filtered from raw tweet · AI summary pending

$DELL$INTC·Read on X
Also today
Earlier this week
Methodology

How she reads the world

01Process

Reverse-engineers entire supply chains FIRST, then finds chokepoints nobody else watches. Builds detailed maps before any pick. Doesn't 'follow news' — reads SEC filings, supplier contracts, technical conference proceedings.

02Validation

Waits for thesis validation through EARNINGS, not trading noise. Will hold through 30-50% drawdowns if the supply-chain thesis is intact. Updates view publicly when data changes.

03Risk

Up to 1.4× margin on high-conviction positions. DELEVERAGES to zero on macro shocks (did it during Iran escalation). Explicit 'Doomsday ETF' for war scenarios ($FAZ / $GUSH / $SQQQ).

04Avoids

Naked mega-caps everyone is already long. Names with capital structure issues (dilutions at the wrong time). Crowded trades. Says 'don't blindly copy' — she may sell without announcing.

From the archive

Calls that aged well

Hand-logged during research sessions — fuller context than the auto-scrape can capture.

  1. $AXTI — 'Strait of AXTI'

    Bullish

    Called AXTI a $150 PT from $12-15. Now $140 (+800%).

    AXTI = InP substrate monopoly. All photonics names downstream eventually need their material. Geographic-bottleneck metaphor — like the Strait of Hormuz: you can route around it but the friction shows up everywhere. Her highest-conviction documented chokepoint.

    "Everyone thought I was crazy when I gave $AXTI a $150 PT from $12-15. Reason my YTD is over 600%+ is because I identify the biggest chokepoints in hyperscaler supply chains before anyone else."
    $AXTI
  2. Co-Packaged Optics — TAM math

    Bullish

    Optical TAM grows 9× by 2028, CPO takes the lion's share

    Per Goldman Sachs the optical TAM scales from $15B → $154B by 2028. CPO alone hits $91B — a 55,000% growth curve from current revenue. AAOI, COHR, LITE all positioned. AXTI and SIVE are the upstream chokepoints.

    $AAOI$COHR$LITE$AXTI$SIVE
  3. $IREN — flipped bearish

    Bearish

    $6B ATM dilution against $11B mcap — out until it's done

    Math: $11B market cap selling $6B new shares against you. Capital structure crushes investor returns even with thesis intact.

    "If the marketcap is $11B and they're selling $6,000,000,000 worth of new shares against you... I would not go long until the ATM is finished."
    $IREN
  4. $SLOIF — silicon photonic substrates

    Bullish

    Sizable position taken at €43 ahead of NVDA GTC

    1.5B EUR market cap, trading at 1× book and ~2× P/S — 'genuine monopoly' on silicon photonic substrates.

    "Changed my mind about Soitec ($SLOIF) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure"
    $SOI$SLOIF
Source corrected 2026-05-28
xcancel.com · nitter.net · tiekoetter

Previously fed by a third-party Substack blog summarizing her work, not her own posts. Now reads her actual X timeline; ticker detection blends $TICKER mentions with a company-name → ticker dictionary. Each card links back to the original tweet on x.com.