Section I · Today's actions
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Plays.

Today's curated plays — filtered through AI thesis universe → signal win-rate ≥60% → position-aware → 3-specialist council. Need a primer?

11 candidates evaluated5/29/2026, 1:05:37 PM
Verdict colors: green = take it (STRONG BUY / BUY / SELL PUT) amber = watch / wait red = avoid
⚡ GEX flip — our top signal
5 of today's plays fire on it
68% win rate63 tracked trades$57K shadow P&L

When dealers flip from short-gamma to long-gamma, their hedging flow stops fighting the move and starts amplifying it — a directional tailwind. This is the same signal the shadow book trades; the plays below tagged GEX_FLIP inherit this record.

Today's plays — 8, ranked by conviction

One list, highest-conviction first. Each card opens to its Final Read: verdict, the exact order to place, signal track record, plain-English fundamentals, and a 7-gate checklist.

1/8CALLASML $16502026-07-02 · 34d—
STRONG BUY · 97+16% 30d · healthy run›
The final readSTRONG BUYconviction 97/100

STRONG BUY: betting on ASML upside. Why: all 3 specialists agree. Also: GEX_FLIP signal wins 68% (63 trades tracked).

Place this order
buy $1650C / sell $1690C 2026-07-02 — net debit ≤ $1,800
Signal recordGEX_FLIP 68%over 63 tracked trades · $57K shadow P&L

Fairly valued — This company generates real cash (free cash flow +$10.5B/yr — money left after running the business); growing modestly (+12% revenue/yr); strong returns on shareholder money (ROE 52%); priced at 41× earnings (richer than the ~32× sector norm).

✓In AI thesis universe (T1-RH)
✓3-specialist council: STRONG
✓Signal track record: GEX_FLIP 68% over 63 trades
✓Position-aware: unheld
✓Entry timing: not chasing a parabolic move
✓Valuation: fair
○Sizing: single leg too big — resized to a spread
1/8T1-RH
✓✓✓STRONG
Action
Buy 1× ASML $1650C 2026-07-02
@ ~$95.85 on green-day continuation
Premium
~$95.85
Cost
$10K
DTE
34d
Score
58/100
↓ Smaller versionsingle leg ≈ $10K — too rich for a momentum bet
buy $1650C / sell $1690C 2026-07-02$2K est
Defined-risk spread · defined-risk vertical sized to ~$1,800 net debit — same direction, capped cost. Confirm the live debit on the chain.
✓ Momentum confirmedASML +16% in 30d — green-day continuation· Stock +16% in 30d — confirmation of breakout. Backtest: green-day entries with +5–15% pre-5d hit 89% wr.
◇ FAIRP/E41.1 vs 32 Semiconductors medianFCF+$10.5B(27% margin)Rev growth+12%ROE+52%
Signal: GEX flip — dealer flow tailwind
Target: +80% (trim 50% there)
Stop: -50%
View UW data + council reasoning
UW data
· GEX: negative spot $1629.69 · flip $1647.86 · CW $1550 · PW $1400
· 5d flow: calls $261K vs puts $127K · bias +35%
· Dark pool 5d: $42.7M across 165 prints
Council reasoning
NORMAL·M 30% / F 30% / T 40%·score 1.00
✓macro×0.30·VIX regime NORMAL
✓fundamentals×0.30·IV reasonable, insider=neutral
✓technicals×0.40·GEX=negative, 5d $ flow net_bias +35% bullish
2/8PUTCEG $2802026-06-05 · 7d—
SELL PUT · 83-3% 30d›
The final readSELL PUTconviction 83/100

SELL PUT: betting on CEG income from selling premium. Why: all 3 specialists agree.

Place this order
sell $280P 2026-06-05 — limit $4.25 credit or better (GTC)
Signal recordCSP_INCOME 100%over 1 tracked trades · $65 shadow P&L

Fairly valued — This company generates real cash (free cash flow +$1.1B/yr — money left after running the business); decent returns on shareholder money (ROE 16%); priced at 24× earnings (richer than the ~22× sector norm).

✓In AI thesis universe (T2-ACTIVE)
✓3-specialist council: STRONG
✓Signal track record: CSP_INCOME 100% over 1 trades
✓Position-aware: unheld
✓Entry timing: not chasing a parabolic move
✓Valuation: fair
✓Sizing: within budget
2/8T2-ACTIVE
✓✓✓STRONG
Action
Sell to open CEG $280P 2026-06-05
@ ~$4.25 or better, GTC
Collect
$425
Cash needed
$28K
Annualized
79%
DTE
7d
◇ FAIRP/E24.3 vs 22 Nuclear/Utilities medianFCF+$1.1B(4% margin)ROE+16%
Signal: Put-wall income
BTC target: $2.13 (50% profit)
If assigned: own at effective $275.75
View UW data + council reasoning
UW data
· GEX: unknown spot $290.27 · flip $ · CW $300 · PW $280
· 5d flow: calls $52K vs puts $21K · bias +43%
· Dark pool 5d: $7.0M across 28 prints
Council reasoning
NORMAL·M 30% / F 30% / T 40%·score 1.00
✓macro×0.30·VIX regime NORMAL
✓fundamentals×0.30·no earnings in window, insider=neutral
✓technicals×0.40·put_wall ALIGNED at strike, flow not avalanche-bearish
3/8CALLSPY $7652026-07-02 · 34d—
STRONG BUY · 81+6% 30d›
The final readSTRONG BUYconviction 81/100

STRONG BUY: betting on SPY upside. Why: 2 of 3 specialists agree. Also: GEX_FLIP signal wins 68% (63 trades tracked).

Place this order
buy $765C 2026-07-02 — limit $8.68 debit or better
Signal recordGEX_FLIP 68%over 63 tracked trades · $57K shadow P&L
✓In AI thesis universe (OWNED)
✓3-specialist council: PASS
✓Signal track record: GEX_FLIP 68% over 63 trades
○Position-aware: held layered
✓Entry timing: not chasing a parabolic move
✓Valuation: n/a
✓Sizing: within budget
3/8OWNED· held layered
✓✓·PASS
Action
Buy 1× SPY $765C 2026-07-02
@ ~$8.68 on green-day continuation
Premium
~$8.68
Cost
$868
DTE
34d
Score
58/100
◆ Risk-based size1% of $180K = $2K at risk on a −50% stop
→ buy 4 contracts · ticket $3K · max loss $2K
Signal: GEX flip — dealer flow tailwind
Target: +80% (trim 50% there)
Stop: -50%
View UW data + council reasoning
UW data
· GEX: negative spot $756.41 · flip $764.88 · CW $740 · PW $700
· 5d flow: calls $12K vs puts $15K · bias -9%
· Dark pool 5d: $174.8M across 500 prints
Council reasoning
NORMAL·M 30% / F 30% / T 40%·score 0.60
✓macro×0.30·VIX regime NORMAL
✓fundamentals×0.30·IV reasonable, insider=neutral
·technicals×0.40·GEX negative but flow mixed
4/8CALLSPX $75802026-07-17 · 49d—
STRONG BUY · 80›
The final readSTRONG BUYconviction 80/100

STRONG BUY: betting on SPX upside. Why: council split. Also: GEX_FLIP signal wins 68% (63 trades tracked).

Place this order
buy $7580C / sell $7620C 2026-07-17 — net debit ≤ $1,800
Signal recordGEX_FLIP 68%over 63 tracked trades · $57K shadow P&L
✓In AI thesis universe (T3-UW)
○3-specialist council: HOLD
✓Signal track record: GEX_FLIP 68% over 63 trades
✓Position-aware: unheld
✓Entry timing: not chasing a parabolic move
✓Valuation: n/a
○Sizing: single leg too big — resized to a spread
4/8T3-UW
·· ·HOLD
Action
Buy 1× SPX $7580C 2026-07-17
@ ~$170.85 on green-day continuation
Premium
~$170.85
Cost
$17K
DTE
49d
Score
71/100
↓ Smaller versionsingle leg ≈ $17K — too rich for a momentum bet
buy $7580C / sell $7620C 2026-07-17$2K est
Defined-risk spread · defined-risk vertical sized to ~$1,800 net debit — same direction, capped cost. Confirm the live debit on the chain.
SPY $758C 2026-07-17 (1 contract)$2K est
ETF proxy · SPY tracks SPX at ~10% notional — same trade, a fraction of the ticket.
Signal: GEX flip — dealer flow tailwind
Target: +80% (trim 50% there)
Stop: -50%
View UW data + council reasoning
Council reasoning
NORMAL·M 30% / F 30% / T 40%·score 0.30
✓macro×0.30·VIX regime NORMAL
·fundamentals×0.30·no UW intel
·technicals×0.40·no UW intel available
5/8PUTGS $9552026-07-10 · 42d—
BUY · 77+13% 30d · healthy run›
The final readBUYconviction 77/100

BUY: betting on GS downside. Why: council split. Also: momentum confirmed, not yet stretched.

Place this order
buy $955P 2026-07-10 — limit $18.82 debit or better

Priced for perfection — This company solidly profitable (29% profit margin); growing modestly (+4% revenue/yr); decent returns on shareholder money (ROE 15%); priced at 17× earnings (cheaper than the ~24× sector norm).

✓In AI thesis universe (T3-UW)
○3-specialist council: HOLD
○Signal track record: new signal, no history yet
✓Position-aware: unheld
✓Entry timing: not chasing a parabolic move
✓Valuation: rich
✓Sizing: within budget
5/8T3-UW
·· ·HOLD
Action
Buy 1× GS $955C 2026-07-10
@ ~$18.82 on red-day setup
Premium
~$18.82
Cost
$2K
DTE
42d
Score
77/100
◆ Risk-based size1% of $180K = $2K at risk on a −50% stop
→ buy 1 contract · ticket $2K · max loss $941
✓ Momentum confirmedGS +13% in 30d — green-day continuation· Stock +13% in 30d — confirmation of breakout. Backtest: green-day entries with +5–15% pre-5d hit 89% wr.
◇ RICHP/E16.9 vs 24 Default medianFCF$-41.9BRev growth+4%ROE+15%
Signal: UW_PUT_FLOW
Target: +80% (trim 50% there)
Stop: -50%
View UW data + council reasoning
UW data
· GEX: spot $0.00 · flip $ · CW $ · PW $
Council reasoning
NORMAL·M 30% / F 30% / T 40%·score 0.30
✓macro×0.30·VIX regime NORMAL
·technicals×0.40·unknown kind
6/8CALLNBIS $2302026-07-02 · 34d—
BUY · 67+64% 30d · too hot to chase›
The final readBUYconviction 67/100

BUY: betting on NBIS upside. Why: all 3 specialists agree. Also: GEX_FLIP signal wins 68% (63 trades tracked).

Place this order
buy $230C / sell $256C 2026-07-02 — net debit ≤ $1,178
Signal recordGEX_FLIP 68%over 63 tracked trades · $57K shadow P&L

Expensive / speculative — This company burns cash (free cash flow −$3.2B/yr — spending more than it earns); growing fast (+75% revenue/yr); decent returns on shareholder money (ROE 14%); priced at 71× earnings (richer than the ~45× sector norm).

✓In AI thesis universe (EXTRA)
✓3-specialist council: STRONG
✓Signal track record: GEX_FLIP 68% over 63 trades
✓Position-aware: held new
○Entry timing: stock already extended
○Valuation: expensive
○Sizing: single leg too big — resized to a spread
6/8EXTRA· held new
✓✓✓STRONG
Action
Buy 1× NBIS $230C 2026-07-02
@ ~$28.05 on green-day continuation
Premium
~$28.05
Cost
$3K
DTE
34d
Score
52/100
◆ Risk-based size1% of $180K = $2K at risk on a −50% stop
→ buy 1 contract · ticket $3K · max loss $1K
↓ Smaller versionsingle leg ≈ $3K — too rich for a momentum bet
buy $230C / sell $256C 2026-07-02$1K est
Defined-risk spread · defined-risk vertical sized to ~$1,178 net debit — same direction, capped cost. Confirm the live debit on the chain.
⚠ Parabolic — size downNBIS +64% in 30d· Stock +64% in 30d — parabolic territory. Sample size too small to confirm green-day rule still holds; size down.
◇ EXPENSIVEP/E70.7 vs 45 AI Compute medianFCF$-3.2BRev growth+75%ROE+14%
Signal: GEX flip — dealer flow tailwind
Target: +80% (trim 50% there)
Stop: -50%
View UW data + council reasoning
UW data
· GEX: negative spot $226.34 · flip $229.73 · CW $232.5 · PW $195
· 5d flow: calls $183K vs puts $8K · bias +91%
· Dark pool 5d: $156.5M across 436 prints
Council reasoning
NORMAL·M 30% / F 30% / T 40%·score 1.00
✓macro×0.30·VIX regime NORMAL
✓fundamentals×0.30·IV reasonable, insider=neutral
✓technicals×0.40·GEX=negative, 5d $ flow net_bias +91% bullish
7/8PUTCOIN $1752026-07-10 · 42d—
BUY · 66+4% 30d›
The final readBUYconviction 66/100

BUY: betting on COIN downside. Why: council split.

Place this order
buy $175P 2026-07-10 — limit $12.95 debit or better

Priced for perfection — This company generates real cash (free cash flow +$1.8B/yr — money left after running the business); growing modestly (+4% revenue/yr); weak returns on shareholder money (ROE 7%); priced at 70× earnings (richer than the ~18× sector norm).

✓In AI thesis universe (T3-UW)
○3-specialist council: HOLD
○Signal track record: new signal, no history yet
✓Position-aware: unheld
✓Entry timing: not chasing a parabolic move
✓Valuation: rich
✓Sizing: within budget
7/8T3-UW
·· ·HOLD
Action
Buy 1× COIN $175C 2026-07-10
@ ~$12.95 on red-day setup
Premium
~$12.95
Cost
$1K
DTE
42d
Score
72/100
◆ Risk-based size1% of $180K = $2K at risk on a −50% stop
→ buy 2 contracts · ticket $3K · max loss $1K
◇ RICHP/E70.2 vs 18 Fintech medianFCF+$1.8B(28% margin)Rev growth+4%ROE+7%
Signal: UW_PUT_FLOW
Target: +80% (trim 50% there)
Stop: -50%
View UW data + council reasoning
UW data
· GEX: positive spot $183.26 · flip $17.85 · CW $175 · PW $150
· 5d flow: calls $84K vs puts $65K · bias +12%
· Dark pool 5d: $39.8M across 116 prints
Council reasoning
NORMAL·M 30% / F 30% / T 40%·score 0.30
✓macro×0.30·VIX regime NORMAL
·technicals×0.40·unknown kind
8/8CALLTSM $4402026-07-02 · 34d—
BUY · 61+6% 30d›
The final readBUYconviction 61/100

BUY: betting on TSM upside. Why: council split. Also: GEX_FLIP signal wins 68% (63 trades tracked).

Place this order
buy $440C 2026-07-02 — limit $17.85 debit or better
Signal recordGEX_FLIP 68%over 63 tracked trades · $57K shadow P&L

Cheap for what you get — This company generates real cash (free cash flow +$33.6B/yr — money left after running the business); growing fast (+21% revenue/yr); strong returns on shareholder money (ROE 36%); priced at 22× earnings (cheaper than the ~32× sector norm).

✓In AI thesis universe (T1-RH)
○3-specialist council: HOLD
✓Signal track record: GEX_FLIP 68% over 63 trades
✓Position-aware: unheld
✓Entry timing: not chasing a parabolic move
✓Valuation: cheap
✓Sizing: within budget
8/8T1-RH
·· ·HOLD
Action
Buy 1× TSM $440C 2026-07-02
@ ~$17.85 on green-day continuation
Premium
~$17.85
Cost
$2K
DTE
34d
Score
48/100
◆ Risk-based size1% of $180K = $2K at risk on a −50% stop
→ buy 2 contracts · ticket $4K · max loss $2K
◇ CHEAPP/E22.1 vs 32 Semiconductors medianFCF+$33.6B(26% margin)Rev growth+21%ROE+36%
Signal: GEX flip — dealer flow tailwind
Target: +80% (trim 50% there)
Stop: -50%
View UW data + council reasoning
Council reasoning
NORMAL·M 30% / F 30% / T 40%·score 0.30
✓macro×0.30·VIX regime NORMAL
·fundamentals×0.30·no UW intel
·technicals×0.40·no UW intel available
🚨 3 open legs at ±50% — review/manage (click to expand)
SPY $775 CC_LEAPS 2027-01-15: -74% — BTC or roll
ALAB $320 CC 2026-06-18: -133% — BTC or roll
ASTS $110 CC 2026-06-18: -362% — BTC or roll
🗑 3 candidates dropped (click to view reasons)
PlaySignalReason
LMT $540C 2026-07-02GEX_FLIPoff-thesis
SPY $560C 2026-07-10MACRO_HEDGElayered+HOLD
SPY $715C 2026-07-10UW_PUT_FLOWlayered+HOLD
→ Full signal track records live on the Shadow page
Suggestion validity: scout refreshes 7:05am + 12:05pm PT (Mon-Fri). CSPs valid until expiry, long calls until premium drifts >15% from this quote.